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Message: something to read sir Baggins et al

something to read sir Baggins et al

posted on Sep 13, 2008 12:08PM

from solomonsmallcaps.com Not sure what to make of this website anymore as they have made some pretty bold predictions of late which were wayyyy off. Of course not too many predicted the massive sell off in gold etc. we saw. Lets hope we are sneaking back up:

September 12, 2008

The Venture Exchange rebounded nicely today, gaining 44 points to close at 1,608. This was fuelled in part by a 10% single day jump in the TSX Gold Index - it closed at 242 today for a gain of 22 points as gold itself enjoyed a $17 advance.

Monday may tell the tale if this was simply a dead cat bounce or the start of a major recovery. We’re of the opinion that today’s action was simply a correction to the upside, which is why we purchased 1,200 HGD units today for our simulated portfolio at $14.73. We made over a $2,000 profit on an HGD trade early in the week, and we re-entered this market Friday afternoon. We’ll see what next week brings, but the HGD is clearly in an overall bullish trend and a third major wave to the upside appears quite possible. All the Gold Index did today (albeit impressively) was move back to an area of previous strong support (240-243), which technically was to be expected. Our thinking is that this Index will break down again to just below the 200 level before this sell-off has concluded which means the HGD would run to at least the $20 mark. In any event, our position in the HGD is an excellent hedge in a volatile and somewhat uncertain market.

The first two weeks of September have been horrible for most investors. Our simulated portfolio has certainly taken a hit, but is holding up reasonably well. Overall so far, our portfolio has lost 9.6% of its value since it was launched at the end of August. We started with a $100,000 portfolio and it is now valued at $90,458.17.

The 9.6% drop in our portfolio in such a short period is unacceptable in our view, and we’ll be working hard in the coming days to ensure that the next two weeks are much more favorable. However, we have faired better than the TSX Venture Exchange which has dropped 19% so far this month. The TSX Composite is down 7.3%.

Currently, we’re sitting on $3,638 cash in Category 1 and $10,000 cash in Category 2. We sold one stock this past week - Columbia Yukon - and added to our positions in Greencastle Resources (VGN, TSX-V, 30,000 shares at 21 cents), Noront Resources (NOT, TSX-V) and MacDonald Mines (BMK, TSX-V). We had just over $18,000 in cash in Category 3 until Friday afternoon when we purchased 1,200 HGD units at $14.73 as a hedge against a drop in gold and the TSX Gold Index.

As with all investments, we recommend you do your own due diligence, invest only with money you can afford to lose, and never put all your “eggs” in one basket. Invest wisely, and we suggest taking at least half your profits off the table on a “double”. Also, please read our disclaimer near the top of our web site.

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