posted on
Oct 15, 2008 06:35PM
TODAY'S DISCOVERY, TOMORROW'S FUTURE
Creating shareholder wealth by advancing gold projects through the exploration and mine development cycle.
Message: KXL Value
I hear your pessimism, fdrake - you sail very close to the wind of being a KXL basher, but you're entitled to your opinion. Whatever - if that's what your KXL shares are worth, then you can sell them to me tomorrow, and we'll both be happy. I put in a bid for those 98 cent shares at the close today and missed by only seconds. Sell them to me tomorrow.
There is an enormous mistake in saying that the shares of a company, times the no. of shares = company worth. Market Cap is not company worth. Why?:
Because - the last sale price of KXL shares reflects only the marginal price of the last very few shares traded. Yes, a few thousand shares traded for 98 cents or $1.00. But - if you offered to buy the Richardson's KXL shares, for example, you definitely would not get them for that price or even anywhere in the ballpark of that price.
A simpler way of putting it - a sandwich shop sells sandwiches every day for $5.00. At the end of every day, they try to sell a few more mark-down sandwiches for $1.00. The next morning, sandwiches are $5.00 again.
The bashers would say at the end of the day, "sandwiches are no good. They're only worth $1.00. You might as well forget about selling them for $5.00."
It's pretty clear that right now is the "end of the day" for the stock market. The marginal market price is valuing gold explorers at $40 per ounce of gold - but only for the few shares actually traded. Remember, the whole amount of the company's shares (e.g. 88 million KXL shares) are never traded on the market.
Many companies are selling for less than their cash per share in the bank. Never in history has that situation lasted, and no, it's not "different this time."
The understanding of the marginal share price is just as important as the marginal rate of income tax. The first $9,000 or so of your income isn't taxed at all. But above $60,000 you're taxed heavily. A dollar is a dollar, but your taxes depend on how many dollars you've earned that year already. It's all about the marginal rate.
The limitation of the marginal share price is easily proven if you either try to buy or sell a large amount. Try offering to buy 250,000 shares at market price tomorrow. You will not be getting them for 98 cents or the latest sale price - you will drive the price much, much higher. Ditto for selling 250,000 shares. The marginal price is never the price in bulk.
When another company mounts a buyout, for example, they always have to offer a premium above the current marginal share price. That's the only way they'll collect enough shares to make a buyout. Yes, a few people would sell for today's market price, e.g 98 cents, but a lot more wouldn't sell unless offered much higher, e.g. $10 - and therefore a premium is needed at buyout-time.
So no, today's 98 cents doesn't define KXL's worth. It defines the individual price of the last few shares sold at the end of the day - the end-of-the-day sandwiches.
Personally, I think this sandwich stand will stay in business.
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