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Message: Inflation vs Deflation & KXL

"I think we are a long way from the housing bottom yet."

This slump in housing prices is just getting started in 2008. In the recession of 1982 housing prices started to recover in 1985. In the recession of 1990 or 1991 I don't think there was much recovery until about 1996. These housing slumps don't start and end overnight. My guess based on past housing slumps is that it may be a good time to buy circa 2012. Of course in that brief analysis I am a bit worried about demographics. The oldest of the baby boomers will be sixty-six in 2012 - well past the prime house buying years. If anything the baby boomers may be thinking about downsizing in 2012. And then of course there is the problem of the final hurray which the boomers are fast approaching - nobody lives in a house after that; so there may be lots of supply. Maybe the housing slump will last until they have had a big party for the last baby boomer around 2060 or so. Oh well just a few thoughts to cheer you up over the weekend.

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