We sure bat around the POG, don't we!? Long term, gold should outperform cash (as in T-Bills or similar interest paying vehicles). Short term... it is a gamble like most things. The current trend is down with a bit of a double top occuring in March and July. Gold spent more than the first half of '08 above $850, but since July has made lower highs and lower lows and is currently at or near the top of the channel, so if it breaks higher it may be a signal. Put another way, if you bought gold in '08, chances are about 3:1 that you are down a bit. Bullish or bearish, I believe those are the facts!