That's not how it's supposed to be. The rule of thumb for years had been that gold mining stocks outperform gold futures because producers are able to generate profits that outpace the metal's selling price. They can do this by taking advantages of operating efficiencies, say by cutting costs to take gold out of the ground.

"People conventionally thought these shares would afford leverage to a rising gold price by going up multiples to a rising gold price," said Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers in Montreal.

That theory worked earlier this decade. During the 2001-2003 period, gold prices jumped about 50%, as futures climbed to about $415 an ounce during the worse of the U.S. recession and weak recovery. But gold shares, as tracked by the Amex Gold Bugs index, surged nearly 300%.

These days, that relationship has reversed. The divergence between gold equities and bullion is now prompting some analysts to suggest the gold market is on the cusp of a turn.

Depending on whom you ask, that could be good for equities - or just simply bad for bullion.

"This will all end badly, just like all other bubbles," predicts Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management, a commodities futures brokerage in Evanston, Ill.

"Can we go to $1,500 first? Of course. Is it worth even $1,000? No," he said.

Kaplan says there's an alarming gap between costs for a producer to mine gold and how much traders in the futures market are willing to pay for it. Newmont, for instance, said earlier this week it cost $440 an ounce to mine gold last year, or about half of what gold fetched on the futures market at the end of the year.

Investors who are looking for any alternative to beaten down stocks are pushing up the price of bullion, Kaplan and others say.

"It's just money chasing money," he said.

In fact, the gap between gold mining shares and bullion prices carries an implicit warning about the prospect for gold prices, say analysts at RBC Capital Markets.

"Historically, when stocks begin to underperform gold, that's a sign that gold is running out of steam," said Ray Hanson, a technical analyst at RBC.

Still, he noted that the recent strength in gold marks the first time since July that bullion has advanced while the major stock indexes have fallen.

"It could be a signal that something in the broader market is beginning to happen," he said.

'Baby with the bathwater'

Worries about corporate profits, global recession, and the next shoe to drop in the financial crisis have spurred a massive flight to assets deemed less risky.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 have each lost more than 15% this year, adding to 2008's double-digit declines.