Re: Preventing short sales - was it Portee?
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 05, 2009 05:25PM
Creating shareholder wealth by advancing gold projects through the exploration and mine development cycle.
Good writeup sinbads, thanks. I'm hurting very deeply too, but as I've said before, the upside looks like a lot more than the downside on KXL, so I don't see any point in selling. The big boys with serious money in this stock (Richardsons et al) are without doubt highly motivated to make something of this. The Institutions holding on to their KXL thoroughly, and even adding a bit - let's face it, they're the "smart money". I have a resolution to buy things when they're unpopular, and it seems that that's exactly where we are now. Like a basically great high-schooler covered in pimples and with no date for the prom, things can only get better so far as I can see.
My tiny retirement account got decimated (the bad kind, not the Roman 10% version), but I figured again that there's no point in locking in the losses. I like Buffett's advice - imagine you didn't own any KXL - would you buy it today at these prices? I would. Now if only I hadn't already lost most of my cash getting here in the first place, yeesh. I'm sure I'm in very good company here on this board - great company, in fact.
Re: the writeup you included, a good call, although I'm very wary in my old age (Keith B. - kidding! I just mean I'm less stupider than I once was! But only a bit!) about "Survivorship Bias." That's where you make 64 predictions in every combination of yes/no on 6 events in a row, yes or no, very specific, and one of those 64 combinations (2 to the power of 6) is by definition guaranteed to be right, and hey presto, you're a genius to at least someone! A lot of newsletters got their start that way. But actually it's just a game. When the pundits cherry-pick their past advice, hey, they're always braniacs! As Yogi Berra said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."
Not that some advice isn't good. I'm extremely cautious about the notion of gold rising to the moon, or even above $1000 again. Maybe, but probably not for long. I maintain it's entirely a plaything of the governments, big banks, the IMF. They can write "10,000 tons of gold" on a piece of foolscap any time they want and sell it for real cash on the Comex, washing our money down the drain for a while. Heck, they can even sell the same piece of paper as many times as they like - very green and all, that. So the price may likely fall soon to prop up the bailout packages, and allow the big players to buy back their fake gold for cheap cheap cheap. Then they'll boost it up again and sell (more fake gold). Wash, rinse, repeat (and we're the ones getting taken to the cleaners each time).
But gold won't go to nothing - even the IMF etc. doesn't want to spoil a good thing - and KXL will still be a very good prospect. And building resource esitimate will be wonderful. Drilling is usually dismal in the Spring, but this time it seems that with the new 6,000m drill program that they intent to keep it going. I sure hope so.
I close here with something to cheer up with - the wisdom of Yogi Berra. Click here.
Some of my favourites:
It's like déjà vu all over again.
I'd give my right arm to be ambidextrous.
I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did!
Always go to other peoples' funerals; otherwise they won't go to yours.
Pair up in threes.
There are some people who, if they don't already know, you can't tell 'em.
I can't concentrate when I'm thinking.
You mean now? (When asked what time it was.)