h_r,
I said Aurelian off the top of my head as a "maybe" it was them. Must have been another company, but I do remember it occuring... If I get some time later I'll try to look it up. Maybe another poster has a better memory.
I don't disagree with your numbers based on what we know- but an interested major who signs a confidentiality agreement (and there are evidently at least a few) might know enough more about what Kodiak is sitting on. There's been speculation about some kind of deal with a major, but unfortunately that is one of the things that Kodiak has a legitimate reason not to talk about. Until something happens, we're all just speculating and playing guessing games...