Montrose, I can't see any incentive at all for the companies to manipulate, in any way, the stock prices ahead of the vote. Even if they had the means to do so, it would be a huge risk for them to break the law with little or no apparent advantage.
Mr. Market, on the other hand, is VERY efficient at this sort of thing and has done spendidly well in keeping the shares of these two companies in an appropriate price relationship.
For my part, I decided to sell all my KXL shares and to purchase the same value worth of GGR shares. Not an easy task, I can tell you! As you know, there is not a lot of daily volume in GGR, and so its price was very sensitive to any buy offers. All offers had to be 'limits', and it took me over a week to finally make the change. Selling KXL at my price was relatively easy; buying GGR at my price proved to be the challenge and there was no way I could do that all at once.
At the end, assuming the merger is completed, I'll have an equal number of KXL shares as before and will have realized a paper gain of about 6.5%. Plus, and this was a real incentive for me, I was able to take my capital loss on KXL without having to worry about the 30 day repurchase rule.
I can tell you this though - after I sold all my shares in KXL, it was REALLY tempting to just walk away from it all. My strategy will be all for naught if we don't see some real price appreciation in 2011.