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Message: Gold/gold stock divergence

The article is written by a senior member of a fund group who is trying to convince viewers that he understands the marketplace and that we should invest with them, which I'm willing to put up with in exchange for the data which I don't have time to track down or would have to pay for. The central thesis is that gold stocks are undervalued relative to the recent(~ over the last year) gold price increases and therefore he presents the case to purchase them, knowing that he has an obvious bias . The NPV value implies a siginificant discount to the spot gold price but what I see is a NPV that is still climbing at the same rate, so gold stocks are still being valued to the same degree but perhaps something else is pushing the spot price higher that doesn't necessarily impact gold stock values. One other possibility, which is barely touched in the article, is the availability of physical supply or the impression that supply is limited. He states the impact of the ETF's on gold price is " probably marginal" but he's ignoring the impact on supply. The central banks are net buyers now and the presence of the gold ETF's has at least tied up a lot of supply over the last 5 years, even if there has been net outflows this year. I've checked the supply/demand data on the CPM site and the WGC site but don't have anything conclusive to present. They tend to withhold some of the crucial data and will make it available, for a fee. The traditional demand for gold has changed to a strong investment component, which could pressure the supply availability to raise spot prices. Gold will never again become a freely used currency. Even when it was used as such it was combined with silver since there simply wasn't enough supply to make it useful as a currency and that problem would be much worse now. I question the value for individuals to stockpile physical bullion either in coins or bars because there are huge liquidity issues regardless of what happens to fiat money. If there's a catastrophic failure of fiat , then you will either eventually run out of your gold or it will be taken away from you. If the world monetary system stabilizes sufficiently to break the upward price trend, then a large amount of supply will be pushed into the market all at once. I'll still take my chances with gold stocks for the next while. So, was that impressive rise in PDG's price yesterday a sign of good things to come next week or another one of those teasers we've seen before?

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