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Message: Re: Gold bull is dead, long live the bear!

Actually H, the 50 week MA line sits around $1,508 per ounce today and if you look at a weekly chart of $gold, it has not crossed that line. Maybe you were talking about the 50 day MA which is in the $1750 range.

when talking about a 10 year trend you cannot say it is broken simply because the price dropped below a 50 day moving average which represents 1/73rd of the entire trend. In the past 3 years the POG has crossed below the 50 day MA at least 10 time ... yet the long term trend has still been up. Since you like to split hairs, the proper terminology is a short term downtrend within a long term up trend. And until the long term trend is broken it is the stronger trend.

however I am with you in the fact that in the shorter term, there is definite selling pressure. Having said that there is extremely strong support in the $1,500 range. the POG came close in the wee hours last week and hit 1,530 for a brief moment before catapulting up again. but since there is a large amount of demand at $1,500 plus the fact that the 50 week MA is also in that range, cutting below that might take a few tries before it is successful (IF it is successful). Some traders might call that an All Star entry point to the bullish side.

Also FWIW, a 200 day or 40 week MA seems to be a better measure of the (shorter term) trend of the POG ...

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