Some will argue I don't know farming...

I think that shorting the HND's, HZU's etc are as close to a sure bet as there is in this game. Oil was, what, in the 80's a yr ago and is up nearly 50%. HOU is even to where it was (about $10). If you had shorted HOU, in other words made the entirely wrong call by betting oil was dropping, you would be even now, and had several chances to take profits of over 50%. If you had shorted HOD, the right call, yo would be up 60% or so right now. The way these things are structured, they lose long term so they seem perfect shorts. Of course it isn't a slam dunk, if you shorted HOD last apr, you would be down 50% in a month, but that didn't last long. If you waited till late May, you'd have better than a double right now.

Thinking hard about it. Wife says summer is shorts season, you know.