Looking out the window, it looks more like January than the first of May. Got quite a shot of rain followed by about 10 inches of snow. Last year at this time, seeding was well under way here in SW MB, this year I dare say not a single acre is in provincewide, and I find it hard to believe a first seeding date earlier than May 10 is likely here. I generally skim the Gartman letter and listen to the weekly Don Coxe conference call (http://www.bellwebcasting.ca/audience/lobby/index.asp?eventid=70081727&lang=english&stage=&rndkey=&referral=9576836&sLoginVisible=), both of which are concerned with the lack of progress in planting the US corn crop due to wet conditions. Here, we can start in late to Mid may and be ok, so it is not panic time, but one wonders the effect of much more wet weather on the Prairies and US grain belt. Yields tend to drop as seeding dates get later (Gartman thinks the US needs a "bin busting" crop this year to avoid shortages). As well, cropping plans tend to change as things get late. The US puts in beans instead of corn, Cdns put in less canola and more cereals like wheat and barley.

Makes me wonder if this weather continues, what the effect will be on ag stocks. Poor conditions will drive grain prices up which is generally good for fertilizer prices, but if we plant fewer acres... less fertilizer will be used. Beans require no nitrogen fertilizer, and leave N in the ground for the following crops. Barley is given less N than canola. Unseeded fields will get no N (or other nutrients), and need almost none next yr. Could be tough on N fertilizer sales. I think Monsanto gets their TUA (Technology Use Agreement) money whether the seed goes in the ground or not, and unseeded acres will mean lots of glyphosate (Roundup) used. They might do well out of this, tho I think the margin on Roundup is pretty thin.

Or, the weather will smarten up and all will be fine. Time will tell.