Answer for everyone that gave a thumbs up
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 05, 2011 08:57PM
1.4 billion tonnes of coal need I say more? If so keep on reading.
Well I will tell you what I think about PCY after having two beers.
Prophecy is a great company. With that being said think the recent performance of PCY is akin to the necessity of the little blue pill. And with that comed opportunity.
Now more to the point in answering your question I will just say that PCY has incredible potential and I think that in the next year or two the inherent value will reflect in the spot price.
There are a lot of differences both positive and negative for the argument of PCY Vs. SGQ.
Some positives in the favor of PCY are as follows: (and anyone can add to or make their point about any of these as open discussion)
PCY has a lower strip ratio and lower sulphur,
Next to Rail and can and will be selling our coal to the highest bidder where as SGQ is next door to China that caps the price.
I believe that the price of Diesel will go up significantly and that will cut into the bottom line of SGQ more so than us as we will export our coal via the power lines. We will still ship coal from UO and that will require diesel but because of the proximity to Russia we will build a conveyer belt that will help us to lower our costs and increase our margins.
We are not only a coal story but an infrastructure play. Mongolia is dependant on energy from Russia now. And that is the long version of; "And Jesus wept." Not only that but Mongolia a country that is expanding faster than China and its energy needs are increasing exponentially.
We do have a lot of coal and we will be doing some exploratory drilling at Ulaan Ovoo this year to expand the resource so our already massive coal resources will grow.
Some of the negatives in the comparison are; we have Thermal coal where as SGQ has Met coal.
I'm sure there are more negatives than that and anyone is free to add some red marks on PCY and more green marks on SGQ.
I have no qualms with that.
The point of fact is PCY will be very profitable with Ulaan Ovoo. And with Chandgana we will be a cash cow. I'm not worried about dilution for the CAPEX. I expect a equity dept split of around 20/80 and a payback time that you can count on one hand. I also expect construction to begin next year. Do the math on how fast things have to move in order for that to happen.
If you have your shares just sit back and have a beer. That's what I'm doing:)