(Kitco News) -- A Peruvian mining exec says if Ollanta Humala were to win the June presidential elections in Peru, it would be the worst case scenario for mining, but not the end of the world.

A recent poll shows left-wing candidate Humala winning the first round of Peru's presidential election slated for Sunday.

“My impression is that we are making a huge drama out of it,” said Miguel Cardozo CEO of Alturas Minerals, a gold and copper producer in Peru.

Humala, the front-runner in the presidential race, is a left-wing nationalist, who favors higher royalties and higher taxation in the mining sector.

There is fear a Humala presidency would jeopardize $50 billion of mining, energy and infrastructure investment that the government expects will fuel 6.5 percent growth over the next five years, said Cordoza.

Peru is the world’s second-largest producer of copper and No. 2 in silver. The country has lined up about $40 billion in mining and oil projects for the next decade.

“I think the other four candidates will favor the development of mining – Humala is the only one that makes any proposals to increase taxation to mining but he is not saying he will stop mining, or nationalize mining assets, he hasn’t proposed that -- it is just about getting more taxes,” said Cardozo who also led the Peruvian delegation at the recent Prospectors and Developers Conference in Toronto – the world’s largest mining show.

Humala had 26 percent support in a nationwide poll taken March 26 to April 1 by Lima-based researcher Ipsos Apoyo. Fujimori, the daughter of jailed former President Alberto Fujimori, trailed him with 18 percent support, while former President Alejandro Toledo had 17 percent support and Toledo’s former Finance Minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski had 16 percent. Such an outcome on Sunday would pitch Humala and Fujimori in a June 5 run-off.

“Humala generates fear among investors in the markets. Even in a worst case scenario if Humala becomes President of the country – I don’t think it is the end of world, though many investors will have that perception,” said Cardozo.

The current events in Peru illustrate the continuing political risk that are often faced by mining companies, noted Barclays Capital Thursday.

Southern Copper’s $1 billion Tia Maria mine in Peru is being delayed for at least a year until 2013 as the Peruvian government suspended the environmental-impact study in a bid to calm tensions, Barclays said.

Protestors are threatening to boycott presidential elections Sunday unless Southern Copper abandons the project. “This is an example of how, beyond concerns relating to declining ore grades, mining companies are facing higher political risks operating in riskier countries,” Barclays said.

In addition to protests against specific mines, the five main Peruvian presidential candidates have expressed support for an increase in taxes on the major gold, copper and zinc producers, not unlike the royalty tax and mining tax that Chile and Australia have imposed,” Barclays noted.

Cardozo said this is nothing new. “When you are in government you need money and if you have companies getting more money than anyone else, then politicians want to get some share of that. I think that Mr. Humala is very limited in what his actions will be – he will not be able to do everything he says and he has not won the election yet,” said Cardozo. He added that Humala won the first round in 2006 and was not elected.

All five candidates have also promised a better redistribution of wealth while preserving the market economy. Largely thanks to mineral exports, Peru’s economic growth has regularly topped 6% in recent times, rising to 8.7% last year.

By Daniela Cambone of Kitco News dcambone@kitco