Analysis of Q2 results
posted on
Aug 12, 2008 08:25PM
(Edit this message through the "fast facts" section)
How did QEC hold up to analyst expectations? Here is an excerpt of their release to use against Pareto's expectations so that you can see it. I will read it a little more thoroughly tomorrow to make my own anaylsis when I am more awake.
From Pareto:
"Questerre is expected to release their 2Q08 earnings report after the market closes August 12th
We expect EBITDA to come in at CADm 4.6, up from CADm 2.1 last quarter driven by increased production and higher oil & gas prices
Production for the 2nd quarter is estimated to 1,400 boe/day, somewhat higher than last quarter at 1,274 boe/day"
From 2Q 2008 report:
Production:
Questerre’s daily production averaged 1,241 boe/d during the second quarter of 2008 and 1,258 boe/d for the first six months of the year. Production levels remained relatively constant throughout the first six months of the year, decreasing marginally from first quarter production of 1,274 boe/d. By comparison to the prior year, production in the second quarter of 2007 of 1,443 boe/d and for the first six months of 1,572 boe/d was 14% and 20% higher respectively than the same periods in 2008. The Antler assets increased Questerre’s oil weighting from 11% in the first half of 2007 to approximately 25% in the first half of 2008. With the recent disposition of its medium crude oil production in Grand Forks, central Alberta, Questerre’s oil production is entirely light sweet oil and natural gas liquids from Antler and Vulcan.The Company expects gas will represent approximately 70% of its product mix as oil production in these areas grows over the remainder of this year. The development of new core areas in Antler and Greater Sierra and the profile of the Vulcan gas pool saw production from Alberta account for 642 boe/d, or just under 52% of the Company’s production in the quarter. By contrast, for the second quarter of 2007, Alberta represented over 81% or 1,176 boe/d of Questerre’s daily production.Vulcan remains the largest component of Alberta production at 75% or 483 boe/d in this quarter and 78% or 917 boe/d for the same period in 2007. Second quarter 2008 production also reflects the disposition of approximately 45 boe/d from the Hector and Grand Forks areas of Alberta. As part of its planned disposition of non-core assets, Questerre expects to sell an additional 100 boe/d of Alberta production. The development of the Vulcan oil pool and receipt of GPP status for this pool are expected to mitigate these dispositions. Production from British Columbia of 396 boe/d was nearly 32% of production in the quarter and 267 boe/d or approximately 20% of production for the second quarter of 2007. In 2008, the first two wells drilled by the Company in the Greater Sierra area contributed 141 boe/d and the A-2 and A-7 wells at Beaver River contributed the remainder or 255 boe/d. Questerre expects production from Greater Sierra to approximate 70 boe/d as the wells stabilize. Production during the quarter at Beaver River was affected by fluctuating line pressure. Boost and wellhead compression are being optimized to minimize these disruptions in the future. Questerre’s new core area in Antler contributed 203 boe/d of light sweet oil during the second quarter and 176 boe/d in the first quarter of this year. Higher volumes in the second quarter were due to the flush production from two wells fracture stimulated in the first quarter. Questerre expects production volumes from this area to increase further as new horizontal wells are drilled and stimulated. Earnings: For the three months ended June 30, 2008, Questerre reported petroleum and natural gas revenue of $9.04 million.This compares to revenue of $6.55 million for the same period in 2007 and $7.23 million in the preceding period this year. With production levels and product mix relatively unchanged from the first quarter, the increased revenue in the second quarter was mainly due to improved commodity prices. Natural gas prices were buoyed by improved fundamentals and higher oil prices in the quarter. The benchmark AECO daily index price in Alberta averaged $10.22/mcf or 28% higher than the first quarter average of $7.97/mcf. Realized prices were 8% higher than the average at $10.94/mcf, largely due to higher quality gas from Vulcan. A narrower spread between the AECO price and the Station 2 price for Questerre’s B.C. production also contributed to the improved realized price.
With increased demand from emerging economies and geopolitical issues, oil prices saw significant appreciation in the second quarter.The reference Edmonton Light price averaged $126.06/bbl up from $97.50/bbl in the first quarter, an increase of 29%. Questerre’s net price increased proportionately from $95.50/bbl to $122.92/bbl. Realized prices in the quarter also included revenue from test production of the recently completed Vulcan horizontal well. This test production was sold at an approximate 30% discount to market prices due to treating and transportation costs. This production accounted for less than 7% of total volumes over the quarter. Revenue was offset by losses on risk management activities during the quarter. Questerre realized a loss of $0.22 million and recorded an unrealized loss of $0.50 million during the period (2007: nil). The losses relate to a single derivative contract for 2,000 gj of daily production at $8.45/gj from April 1 to October 31, 2008.