...for a good read on oil price predictions have a look at:

http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/...

Given the recent history of predictions in energy by 'experts' two analogies come to mind...

I remember the movies when I was a kid in which the witchdoctor explained the pending eruption of the volcano by telling the anxious throng that it's all because they've angered the god of the mountain and they have to feed him a beautiful virgin to placate him...

I also watched the call on the olympic men's triathlon yesterdayin which the commentators wrote Simon Whitfield off at least 3 times during the race with a variety of excusatory explanations from age to psychological pressure to lack of preparation...It's a good thing Whitfield didn't have the benefit of their analysis or he wouldn't have won silver. After the race they expalined how he did so well as though they'd predicted it all along...and we listened.

As much as we would like to believe that the economic and political systems with which we interact and which interact with us are rationally driven and thus subject to analysis and understanding, this is only true within broad parameters. What passes for accurate analysis really amounts to little more than economic tarot card reading in an effort to give us comfort in the swirls and eddies of the economic currents around us. We may have a general idea where the river runs, but we don't really see the boulders or deadheads until we're on them, then we're too occupied with making adjustments to see what's further downstream...when you're in the white water - everything looks like white water...

The systems with which we work have grown to a degree of complexity and involve the interaction of so many complex variables that mastering them is beyond our ken...It's really just a best guess situation.

My prediction - Natural Gas and Oil prices will increase dramatically in the future. My rationale - that's the way it's been for the last hundred years.

Am I an expert??? Well, I do my best not to anoy the god of the mountain, and I called Simon Whitfield for silver *before* the race, so who knows ;-)