I also agree your your analysis. It is the overall market condition and not the stock which is affecting the sp. September in general has never been a good month to investors; however, October-December has. If market sentiment changes like you say and then results are released (4th quarter is the prediction) we should see a nice increase in value. Correct me if I am wrong but I believe that Forest will also be releasing some of their test results in the near future which could cause another run.
Unfortunately, todays drop is bearish to say the least. We do have some weak support at 2.40 but after that it is 2$. Again I wonder why people are selling at these prices. There are traders hoping that it will fall more to pick it up at a better price and I for one hope that they get burned in the process. This play has value and people will eventually come to see it for what it is worth - a lot more than 2.50$/share.