Guys...
posted on
Sep 29, 2008 05:42PM
(Edit this message through the "fast facts" section)
So I asked Jason a few things today in an email that we might all be thinking...things such as have we not derisked a lot of land because the two frac'd wells are on opposite sides of our massive acerage. Also, I asked why the select certain areas to drill rather than just drill anywhere on the fairway, wouldn't the results be the same as the two other fracs? Also, where is TLM right now in drilling and what do they feel about the play etc etc. I also asked about how many wells could be drill a year in full production.
This was his response...I wanted to share this with everyone:)
Hi,
The expectation is that a horizontal well will a frac’ will perform at 2-3 times a vertical well. However, with our economics (low royalties and higher prices) even wells at 1 mmcf/d will be economic.
Talisman has started drilling the first of their vertical wells on our land with the La Visitation well that was spud in early September. They have two more wells after this to complete their earning on our acreage. We believe they are quite excited about the initial results and the potential for this land as they have made a significant capital commitment and expanded it in late August.
We believe the fairway or the most prospective acreage is land with the deeper and thicker sections of the Utica and the Lorraine. We have mapped the fairway and believe the Utica thickness is quite consistent where the Forest and Talisman wells are being drilled. The risk of whether the Utica can be frac’d has been removed since both Talisman and Forest were able to successfully frac the Utica. (The next piece of important information is the frac results from the Lorraine.) The risk of the shale not being consistent throughout the acreage is low, but will require 20+ wells to properly address.
The current locations are drilled based on earning requirements for Talisman and for Forest, I believe are based on where the current surface lease is located. Using the same lease saves approx 4-6 months of permitting and securing regulatory approvals. In theory with a relatively thick fairway, they should be able to drill anywhere within and have the same results. Under a full scale development, they will likely be drilling in the whole fairway, except for land use restrictions and major geological features.
We are expecting the number of wells drilled by a rig in one year will increase as we move up the learning curve. We should be able to drill 15-20 wells per year per rig with the potential for 40-50 rigs working in the Lowlands. This would be similar to the development of the US shale plays like the Haynesville and Barnett by large US companies eg. Devon. Infrastructure will likely involve tie-ins to the existing distribution system and/or the main TQM/TCPL pipeline. This could happen at the same time as drilling under a full field development scenario.
Jason