From my perspective we've already seen the dealer's hand. we're just waiting for the dealer to tell everyone else that is watching and doesn't know how to play the game that yes, the players won and to start paying up.

The nature of shale is that the rock is pretty much the same all the way along the geological formation. That's REALLY important. The differences come from the depth and where the heaving and techtonic shifts have taken place. From QEC's 2D and 3D seismic results we know it's pretty flat and even, hence the term "undisturbed fairway". In other words, the rock is virtually the same all across the QEC land.

Outside of the QEC/Talisman/Forest block is where you get more of that heaving or "overthrust". We also know from the Junex numbers that their area is somewhat overcooked, but not as bad as everyone originally thought, and it's "disturbed". Junex's land being OK, but not great is a good sign for QEC as well. It's further proof that the shale is behaving as good or better than the geologists expect. Altai's land is sitting on the fault line, not good either but may explain to a lot of Ati investors why their stock isn't moving much.

So we know the organic content, it's good. We know the fairway is undisturbed, that's great. we know the Utica can be fractured, that's fantastic. Talisman is testing the Lorain as well, and it's similar to other shale plays underway so they should be good to frac it as well. We know from a single frac in the Utica that they got 800mcf/d. We also know that calculating the horizontal is as simple as multiplying 800 mcf/d times the number of fracs. So the 4 stage horizontal initial rusults from Forest should come out to at least 3.2mmcf/d. We know that the original frac wasn't as efficient as it could have been because the decline rate was off. They sustained 800 mcf/d for 18 days and in the last conference QEC said it sustained that 800 mcf/d for the full 30 days. If it was a good efficient frac it should have had a more pronounced decline rate. That's good for us, that just means yes, the wells will get even higher flow rates as they play with the pressure and chemicals etc. for the fracs.

We also know that they need about 1mmcf/d on the horizontals for break even. We know we're going to blow that number out. We know their break even is at about $3.50 NYMEX. We know their calculations include a $1/mcf premium to NYMEX at the NY/Canada boarder. We also know the NY City gate spot price has been $1.50 to $8/mcf higher all winter so we're going to get a lot more than a $1 premium to NYMEX.

It's over folks. Just time to wait for them to tell everyone else that... "Yes, no matter how many holes we drill, we still think we're sitting on 7.4 tcf recoverable or 7,400,000,000 mcf of gas." At a gas price of even $5, the numbers really are shocking...

Brym