Re: From IR
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 03, 2009 11:23AM
(Edit this message through the "fast facts" section)
When I said assumptions, I meant being talking about saying results are bad etc etc, or that this play isn't going forward. Those comments are not substantiated and are just assuming.
There is risk in every single oil/gas play, especially a jr, so that's something you should and I'm sure are aware of everytime you hit the buy button. Sure we aren't mentioned specifically, but it did say limited spending in other productive areas, so who knows if they change there minds as time goes on...maybe they'll start end of the year again, or next year. Just so many months ago they were talking about how this was a great play for them, and well needless to say they didn't say it was done did they. Put yourself in the shoes of the company. Commodity prices will predict drilling and terms on leases. I don't think they predicted it would go this low, so plans change. Everybody on this board knows this is a long term play...so when you have a 10 year lease, but only 3 left on others, what would you do?
Look on the bright side of things, that TLM is spending a lot of capital on this play along with others in proving up commerciality. I guess I'm just an optimist...like to look at the positives (and if you actually have some in the enviornment we are in, be happy about that). We all know Forest has to release it's results in a few weeks time (it does take time to clean up the well and get a 30-45 day test)...and TLM will follow.
How many ppl do you think are waiting just like you? I bought this in 2005 and waited until 2007 for a Nahanni well they drilled in BC only to see water come out and the stock tank to $0.35...and this is after watching it go from $0.50 where I bought it to $1.40 and didn't sell on the way up...but I knew the potential it had so I waited and it paid off with last years results.
Oilexco and UTS couldn't get financing. Oilexco despite all it's assets, is burdend by debt but still traded high with $100+oil prices, because sentiment was high..but when you can't borrow money along with the economic outlook, it's going to hurt the company. UTS couldn't get financing either (and I doubt shareholders will accept a $1.30 on 400million bbls of proven oil they sit on). QEC on the other hand has $70+million so be thankful that they did something very important to be able to keep up with TLM when drilling goes on this year. Forest was big player sure, but we owned a 20% stake...on there projected 4tcf. You want to talk facts...talk about the fact that we also own with TLM, when you add up royalty and interest, about 30-35% on a number that TLM said was 48tcf in their presentation (the largest of any of their shale plays) . TLM is the one promising huge amounts of money here and is a primary focus...and they're commited.