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Message: Monday March 2cd

Monday March 2cd

posted on Feb 26, 2009 12:07PM

Monday should be an interesting day to watch... I think that QEC will be able to shed some much needed light on the recent drilling activities of Forest Oil and whether or not Talisman has everything they need to properly complete the wells they have drilled.

Keep something in mind about any responses QEC has with respect to Forest. QEC basically married 2 partners for this play, Talisman and Forest. QEC will want to keep their partners happy and not stir the pot. Don't expect any negative comments on the lack of a coiled tubing unit. It really is like being married, how many times have you said "yes dear" just because it's the easiest way to move forward and get to what you want to actually do?

I'm a big believer in "all things being equal" when working out back of the napkin math, effectively giving companies the benefit of the doubt that they're doing things properly and any minor negatives will be canceled out by minor positives. Unfortunately from the Forest press release they seemed to have selected the worst possible information to disseminate, really gave no information to help the investors interpret the numbers and held back potentially good information.

I have no doubt that Forest did get some very useful information from the wells, but again, they didn't share any of it in the press release or during the Q&A. QEC may be allowed to elaborate a bit during the Monday meeting.

I expected them to be drilling a 4 stage horizontal and to end up with numbers in the 3.2mmcf/d +-500 mcf/d. QEC was the only person to release the 4mmcf/d number. Since Forest never released this info, to have some belief in this number we need to have a better understanding of the circumstances of how and when they got it. A 4mmcf/d IP number at this stage of the play would be extremely encouraging...

The other interesting point will be to see how the other regions are going. Unlike most of the other juniors in the area, QEC does have some revenue generation from other wells and they tied in some signficant additions during Q4. It's nothing major but it can put a bit of positive momentum on the SP when they announce higher BoE numbers for Q4 2008.

Brym

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