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Message: Re: NG to hold 4$

Jun 15, 2009 06:28AM

Jun 15, 2009 07:20AM

Jun 15, 2009 08:19AM

Jun 15, 2009 08:34AM

Jun 15, 2009 08:39AM

and the HENRY HUB stopped at 4.38$. The Amex natural gas was up at 465-67, but finished at 453$, last week I think it was down at 441-42$. Little strange when NG goes up, maybe cause of strong dollar. I'll post this from Bloomberg:

By Reg Curren

June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas futures gained the most in two weeks on speculation the price for the industrial and power-plant fuel will advance to narrow a gap with crude oil and that demand will rise with hot weather this week. --- Hot weather in Texas is forecast to move into the Midwest, lifting fuel demand from power plants to meet air conditioning needs.

“On a relative value to crude oil, we’ve been at ratios we’ve never seen,” said Chris Jarvis, president of Caprock Risk Management LLC in Hampton Falls, New Hampshire. “The worst has already been baked in the cake for gas. The divergence between oil and gas will create switching demand from the industrial and utility side.”

About 10 percent of power plant and large industrial users can switch between oil and gas, according to the National Petroleum Council, a federally chartered and privately funded advisory committee to the U.S. Energy Secretary. --- Oil costs almost 17 times more than gas compared with an average of 9.5 over the past five years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. -- “Gas is cheap relative to oil, and that helps build the case for a natural gas bottom,” Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover Inc., an energy consulting company in New Canaan, Connecticut, said in a note to clients. “Last week’s technical activity suggests natural gas may try to close the huge gap with oil.” A 6.1 percent gain in futures on June 11, accompanied by a contract volume of 368,000 and the addition of 10,700 new contracts to open interest, were indications of a “bullish technical advance” that will keep prices higher, said Beutel.--------

Increases in inventory may start to slow in the coming weeks as higher temperatures boost demand for electricity from gas-fired power plants and output of the fuel slows with a decline in working rigs, Jarvis said. “Natural gas has the best risk-reward in commodities right now,” he said. “Odds are we’re going to see it go higher. Gas will outperform crude oil from this level.”

Hot weather is forecast for much of Texas this week, according to the National Weather Service. Temperatures may reach 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) by June 17, about 9 degrees above normal, the forecaster said. Higher temperatures are expected to move into the Midwest by June 17 and last into next week, MDA Federal Inc.’s EarthSat Energy Weather said today. “For the first time this year, Chicago and Cincinnati may reach 90 degrees and St. Louis may reach 95,” Travis Hartman, a meteorologist at EarthSat, said in a news release. The average high for Chicago this week is about 80 degrees, according to U.S. government data. Hot weather increases air conditioner use, which lifts demand for electricity.

Gas rigs dropped for the 29th straight week, falling by 15, or 2.1 percent, to 685 in the week ended June 12, according to data published by Baker Hughes Inc. The count was the lowest since Nov. 22, 2002, and was down 57 percent from a peak of 1,606 on Sept. 12. “There is improving sentiment and people are finally realizing that crude is ahead of itself,” said Tom Orr, research director at Weeden & Co., a brokerage in Greenwich, Connecticut. “Some traders are probably selling crude, which has more than doubled in six months, and buying gas. I’m not surprised gas is outperforming.” Orr said gas will probably move to trade in a range between $4.50 and $5 in the next couple of months. “It’s not going to take much to move gas up right now,” he said. “I’d be inclined to sell crude and buy gas because an 18-times relationship isn’t going to last for long.”



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