Re: Natural Gas Trade Challenged by Commodity Focus Shift
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by
posted on
Jun 25, 2009 07:22PM
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Galois. I dont have the money:) I posted a site with TA analyses some time ago, think I called it NG in bull. I can tell you that today the NG inventory rose less than expected, expected was 101 units, but the result is 94 units. Also I will tell you that the UNG fund holds 89% of all the contracts and it was discussed if this could have an impact on the price(they could sell and bring the price down), but they have to renew their contracts every month, so it's not consideret to have an impact. The Henry HUB went to 4,03$ up 2,81%, the nymex july delivery 3,873, most resent 3,844. I think I saw 4,04 last week, well I dont think it would be a bad time to get in. If we see oil in 71 tomorrow, then I think it will go for 73 after, NG will follow, but dont go all in, take some pofit and buy on pullback. Amex natural gas up 11 today on 417, last week(think it was) I saw 460-457.
Also, now we see some of the consequenses comming because peoble did'nt belive demand would pick up so fast: India now want in on an Iranian project:
India's state-controlled oil companies are proposing to invest some $5 billion in a gas discovery located in Iran's 3,500 sq km Farsi Block, reported the Press Trust of India on Thursday, citing an unnamed source.
Approved for commercial development in September 2008 by the Iranian government, the Farzad gas field is estimated to hold reserves of as much as 21.68 trillion cubic feet of gas, of which recoverable reserves could total 12.8 trillion cubic feet, according to the local media outlet.
They have said they needed riggs and skilled workers.
Gazprom have to cut 30% spending (new explorations). Yes, all in all I think the NG price will go up. Mexico has to import more.
Ok, I must go to bed:) I think if you do it long time, buy on pullback, yes, maybe stop or at least take profit when it reaches 5-6, it could go down a little before it moves to 7. You have to look for the signs.