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Message: TransAmerican joins the hunt in Utica Shale

Hamselv

When I said "still enough risk in QEC", yes I was referring to needing to yet prove to the market through more successful test wells but also I was referring to other "risk" factors. QEC (as far as the St Lawrence lowlands go) is not a producer nor does the company pay any dividends for obvious reasons. Eventually there is an "opportunity cost" to the money tied up waiting for this one. Also we need to see the actions of senior partner TLM on this play - where their development priorities lay. And then there is the current financial turmoil in Europe (what seems to be driving this sell-off) - if that "gets away" on them and they have major countries failing then we could have a second but even worse world wide recession. As an aside to the European countries debt problems I see another major risk factor in the inevitable crash of the US dollar. I don't have the numbers but I suspect their debt/deficit problem rivals that of any country in the world and there is no sign that there is any political or public will to rein it in. Taken to it's logical conclusion - that can only mean bankrupcy for the US. Now you want to talk about risk. That would be the mother of them all. Look at the public reaction in Greece when the government there is trying to cut back deficits and debt by cutting back public service wages and social programs - they are rioting. Would it be any different in any country? The collective world financial system is on thin ice because (most) countries are living well beyond their means. Who is eventually going to pay for all we receive but aren't paying for? That is risk for any investment.

Having said all that I still believe this company and this play will succeed and handsomely reward all shareholders. It just comes down to how much time it will take. And for an investor like me (retired) that adds an element of risk too. I wish I was younger - I would tuck this one away and let it go for as many years as it took to fully develop/succeed.

Sorry for the rambling there, I get carried away when talking about governments spending money they don't have.

Inceptus

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