Re: The Eternal Bulls
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 18, 2010 02:43PM
(Edit this message through the "fast facts" section)
Not to respond on behalf of Inceptus but tollpusher's question is a good one and is the nut of the problem QEC investors need to think about. The headwinds are numerous and well known. Not to diminish the regulatory (including environmental regs) and royalty unknowns, which are significant, the major issues involve the future price of the commodity, the costs associated with exploiting it and TLM's response to those variables.
We would all like to believe that the price of nat gas prices will rise but what's to stop it from falling further? Every other month seems to bring the announcement of a major shale gas find made exploitable by new fracing technology. The new fields will potentially depress the price of nat gas for quite some time making high cost fields like QECs unviable - not because the gas isn't there but because producers can't make a decent return on invested capital. Hard to see decent returns when nat gas goes for <$3.50 and development costs are >$5 per 1000 mcu. TLM has already spoken: suspend Utica drilling and invest elsewhere, most recently Eagle Ford. I thought the TLM announcement spoke volumes; company focus is Montney, Horn River, Marcellus and Eagle Ford, no mention of Utica.
I think a likely scenario going forward is that TLM will unload Utica and concentrate on lower cost plays. A likely buyer would be one without shale gas exposure and eager to join the game. Total?
Getting back to tollpushers question, Utica only makes sense if nat gas prices rise significantly and/or the Quebec government incentizes exploration companies to develop the industry in lower Quebec through a very generous royalty program, perhaps one that forgives royalties altogether until exploration and development costs are covered. What are the chances of that? Again, something for investors to consider but clearly, without activity, Utica costs will remain high, pushing full blown development further out and depressing the QEC sp.