Re: Our valuation is almost free now...
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 04, 2010 05:29PM
(Edit this message through the "fast facts" section)
Great post and I agree. We're at levels that we were at when we didn't have anything going for us...such as Quebec being a big play, $150+ in cash and pipeline deals in the works etc.
We are down because of one seller and that is anonymous...and it leads me to believe that it is Sprott. They were on BNN and said that that QEC didn't duplicate the St Ed results so they sold lots and are reducing their position. I actually started to laugh out loud when I read this.
Here are the reasons:
Eric Nuttall is def. no Francois Tardiff (sp)! He actually knew quite a bit about shale plays and was a big buyer back when Forest released their 2008 results. He actully left Sprott and they put this guy in who knows nothing. He was saying how QEC had to duplicate their results from St. Ed. Well number one, the Leclercville well being right next door would probably have satisfied his wants.
Second, he wasn't bright enough to state that the gentilly well was in a different structured area and with less pressure. He thinks that it's all an even structure throughout the entire play. Second, he doesn't mention that gentilly only had 3 frac. He actually says that results were only 750mcf/d...doesn't compare apples to apples. A full 8/8 would have net us 2mmcf/d with a less than 4% decline in the first 30 days as opposed to 50% in St. Ed. This gentilly will even get better as time goes on.
This guy from Sprott said when the SP was over $3 in the summer on BNN that you have to wait a year to realize the potential...and then he sells (despite all I said above), after the second well? He never once mention delays being a reason and he lost all credibility with his actions. I had friends that are shareholders that saw the huge flaw in his analysis too and they were calling me up asking what this guy was talking about as he made no sense.
Sad because some people take that advice and are losing out big time on their shares. Not the first time though that BNN advice said sell on QEC and the stock soared later on.
These guys are just playing games they'll be jumping right back in. I bet if they heard Leclercville did better than St Ed they wouldn't know what to say out of embarressment because sad to say, but we on this board do better research on this company then them. I for one don't believe their nonsense and we'll be seeing them back in this stock once they've been able to snatch up what they can.
RBC on the other hand is buying up everything at these levels and they must have a huge share base. I posted the link from reuters because that there has been huge institutional increases in positions and only a few decreases in QEC since the news. For them it's a nice chance to get in even more than before.
Go to financials and scroll down and keep looking to the right until you see 'Institutional holders"...this gives you the update for the last 3 months and is updated on a regular basis.
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/financialHighlights?symbol=QEC.TO
Rocco :)