posted on
Nov 22, 2010 09:27AM
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Message: Political risk
Hey Galois,
You know the report was basically talking about the social issues etc, nothing on drilling. The two wells are still scheduled for next spring, nothing has changed there. There will be multi pad wells set up for next year as well. Now how many is anyones guess. Pipeline also starting up.
Here is the thing...there is no doubt this is happening. The report not doubt suggests that, the BAPE is about telling the gov't how to move forward, not if to move forward. We already know since Oct 1 2010 that is set them back 6 months, but next spring will be that 6 months...2 have already passed. It's not that long a period of time. Now in regards to trading...when there that kind of wait, you can bet that there is going to be some manipulation. These are big firms trading this and I can tell you that they have no problem doing what they have to to get shares from you. QEC has been toyed with hard in the past and it will continue even when it's in full production...but right now is a prime example. These companies know that in 4-5 months we will have more news, regulatory framework ready and moving further towards social accpetance...that doesn't leave too much time to get as much cheap shares as possible. Remember these firms have billions of dollars, they can do that to the share price.
It's simple trading...if nobody wants to buy QEC right now as they would rather have their money tied in something else for the next 4-6 months, then dumping shares will easily drive the share price down and they can put in their bids. Stocks go up because people will hit the asks...well in this case it is a buyers market, and people don't have too.
IMO, and I'd love to hear others...but this is ridiculously cheap right now. What they are valueing our acres at is super low...I think Brym did a calculation before, but it basically puts little value on Quebec or land assets.
Mind you next spring, there will also be another 3-4 other horizontals fraced by Canbrium and other companies so this will only add additional information.
Just think about it. You wouldn't have Talisman and all these other companies, like Canbrium etc send out their head guys to BAPE conferences for nothing. Why would they even bother etc...this play is moving forward and the next few months are so important to get some hydrocarbon laws set in place and it will give companies more ease to move forward. At the moment though we are going to see some work being done by these companies to short and manipulate. QEC has a nice float and is so liquid that it is also easier to do this etc.
I mean we are basically trading at levels seens a little after the recession, and we never even had the $160million in cash, other solid well results (St Ed etc) or pipeline agreement...so explain that to me. I take comfort in the fact that not a single insider has even sold at the highs. I mean they have huge shares yet have been waiting just like the rest of us. They know just what this play means and waiting a year or in their case, longer to see huge gains is the ultimate prize.
We are basically in 2011 and they say 2012 for a 30-50 well pilot. In the meantime for this year I definitily see 2 wells for QEC, plus the other companies horizontal wells plus whatever wells Talisman decideds to drill after those results. They don't bother applying for multiwell pad permits in a few places for just fun...they know where they want to drill, but the gov't framework and regulations have to be in place for them to do so...and that is what they are working towards right now.
I know it sucks to see the share price fall...but I don't know any other stock that has the potential like QEC to do huge things in the next short while and even in a couple years. The average investor would be thrilled to get a return of 10-13% in a year with a diversified portfolio...QEC has the potential to do 4-500% if it goes to previous highs and even more after. I've been sticking to this for a long time and a 6 months wait, well 4 months now doesn't phase me at all in the long term.
Thoughts??
Rocco :)
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