Re: Natural gas price
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 15, 2011 02:05PM
(Edit this message through the "fast facts" section)
Steel,
Right now yes it is just politics. These parties are positioning themselves for the next elections. Frankly you saw the debt, 240B and counting. This will go ahead it just is a matter of time.
Break even prices will vary...he is the thing. Jason said that the SEA will basically be used to develop regulations and discuss all the little things on how we can develop the play as opposed to the effects of fracking. One point they will be working towards is developing a service sector for the play. With this in place, they will be local and working all the time and this is going to drastically drop costs down.
Then add to that...premium to nymex, sweet methane gas and lots of infrastructure in place. The break even price is going to be a lot lower than for most plays in North America you can count on that.
Forest Oil has got their breakeven price in Texas down to I believe $2 (close to that anyway)...and for a lot of plays it is $3-5, sometimes higher depending on those factors above. Ie. BC needs $6-7 because of the remote area and infrastructure. Also remember, it will also depend on gas rates.
For shales plays as you know, as time goes on results get better and better. We have already had a 5mmcf/d (12mmcf/d initial) well and odds are the same or better with Leclercville that they won't release. Also a 2mmcf/d gentilly extrapolated which isn't in a very structured area. So with solid flows like that, this drops break even as well. At the same time, we got all this shale and prices are still $4-5. NG is the way of the future and so expect demand to drastially pick up over the years which will help prices as well.
I'm not worried about anything...expect having to wait...which isn't a worry as much as an inconvenience loool...but I've been holding for a long time and will continue to do so...in the meantime it would just be nice to see some other plays. 2000bbls/d a day with those Sask netbacks would help the SP big time, at least a stable double from here.
Joseph Schacter was on BNN a while back, and he has been following QEC since well before the Quebec discovery in 2008. He said that the market isn't valuing Quebec at all, and that in his opinion that shouldn't be the case. He talked about land values of plays that weren't really proven up being sold for $2000/acre and most plays for a lot more. So right now we are trading at $0.15 less than the NAV of the company plus 1M, 330,000 acres of shale land for free. Pretty incredible but last time we were this low was crash of March 2009. Unreal, since then we have all this cash, solid results and more Antler acerage and we're back to there? To me this is easily one of the cheapest stocks around. The problem is that institutions move stocks, not us. So they would rather park their money elsewhere until that time...and they also just accumulate here, they don't need to bid it up. With that said, QEC went from $0.35 to $6 in 2 months so when this does fly again, it'll be drastic as it always is.
Rocco