Re: A pretty incredible climb so far.....check short interest
posted on
May 05, 2015 10:37PM
I view short selling on a stock like RVX as being likely the result of buyers looking to work the price. Retail investors/traders suffer from two big failings, price sensitivity and impatience....combine the two and you have a manipulators dream.
With a stock that historically has traded as light as RVX has, nothwithstanding the increased volume this year, it doesn't take much to force the price down. Look back at 2014 when days of just a few tens of thousands shares trading were the norm. Someone looking to push the price down to shake out nervous and impatient retailers would have needed to borrow just a few thousand shares to influence the trading and send the PPS lower. The short selling accumulator could then cover at the lower price and probably pick up some shares in accumulating a larger long position.
What I'm talking about is the Wyckoff method, you can read about it here:
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-richard-wyckoff-stock-trading-method-2013-2?op=1
The reason I think we've headed up so sharply so far this year is that...those accumulating, they didn't have time to wait given all the upcoming shows where RVX would be getting itself in front of investors. Then there was the pending news of the Chinese patents and deals. So they were forced to speed things up and were willing to push the PPS higher. That doesn't mean shorting was abandoned, but now they were willing to pay a higher price for the shares they wanted.
Now though we're up sniffing around $3 per share.....and if you look at the short interest for the most recent update, its still over 200,000...down just a hair from the previous period.
T : RVX | 2015-04-30 | 212,700 | -6,400 | 85,699,287 | 0.25 |
T : RVX | 2015-04-15 | 219,100 | 140,900 | 85,696,420 | 0.26 |
T : RVX | 2015-03-31 | 78,200 | -3,600 | 85,696,420 | 0.09 |
T : RVX | 2015-03-15 | 81,800 | 77,800 | 85,696,420 | 0.10 |
T : RVX | 2015-02-28 | 4,000 | -55,500 | 85,696,420 | 0.00 |
T : RVX | 2015-02-15 | 59,500 | 45,500 | 85,696,420 | 0.07 |
T : RVX | 2015-01-31 | 14,000 | -66,500 | 85,696,420 | 0.02 |
Notice the trend, from 14 up to 60 then down to 4....short, cover, short more, cover. But the pattern has broken down a bit of late. I suspect the reason is because retail investors/traders are holding tighter and the (imo) manipulators are having trouble shaking the tree.
Bottom line, if my thesis and opinions are right I don't think we're going to see a significant increase in the PPS until a good chunk of that short interest is eliminated. That also might explain the sudden appearance of bashers on the SH board, registering IDs just within the past couple of weeks.
I won't share these thoughts on SH for that reason....frankly I view it as a neccessary part of the game.