Re: Some back of the envelope calculations.....
posted on
Jun 19, 2015 06:09PM
A few quick thoughts.
Profit margin on 208 would be much higher than 20%. That is the industry average. Pfizer...a behemoth...did 42%. So, profit margins would be 70%+ IMHO especially after the initial ad/detailing blitz is done.
That being said, RVX is not going to take 208 to market alone so we'll never know those figures. An acquiring company will be able to figure it out however.
$1 billion in revenue per year may be high but who knows where pharma could price the pill.
Finally, the earnings multiple would be north of 10 due to the grow rate and projections.
Anyway, it is a difficult analysis to conduct but the buyout price for 208 with a successful phase 3 showing MACE reduction is north of $1 billion IMHO and could be well north.
Bfw