My best guess on the orphan indication....
posted on
Jul 15, 2015 06:01PM
Perhaps I'm making a moutain out of a molehill here, only time will tell, but this goes to the heart of my core beliefs about how the market operates. About how some are able to buy low ahead of big moves in a stock.
Fundamental data...ugh, I consider it of little value because its all old information and I would argue that its already priced in. Even if you pay for some analyst report, all the analyst is doing is pouring over the same fundamental data that is already publicly available and puttting his/her particular spin on it.
DM though, he hinted at something not publicly available on or about April 22nd of this year...an orphan indication for RVX-208. Now....was he speaking out of his ass, just making shit up to hype the stock? I doubt it, and the fact that he committed to making an announcement by June 30th says to me this isn't just smoke and mirrors, but something real.
Of course June 30th came and went with nothing...and we've heard nothing more about it aside from a (supposed) comment at the AGM when DM punted the ball further down the line saying an annoucment will be made (I believe) by the end of the current quarter....Sept. 30th in other words.
So I am operating under the assumption that RVX will be making an announcement about an orphan diesease at some point....maybe before Sept. 30th, or maybe after....but I do think its coming. Is this something to get excited about? Donny seemed excited about it, especially at the Richmond Club presentation. On the BNN interview he seemed more uptight, but then being on camera will do that to a guy....
In my experience with public speaking I've always been less at ease with broadcast media versus standing in front of real people. I don't think DM is going to challenge the likes of Tony Robbins on the public speaking circuit....but I will say he looks comfortable at it and not intimidated at all. I just think he's more more at ease in front of a live audience. On BNN I'm sure he had make-up on, without it you look like a baked skull under those hot lights.
So assuming an orphan indication is coming....Who knows about it? I would wager Koo's dollars to donuts (I'll make that US dollars to Canadian donuts) that a good number of people know....in my opinion that would include Eastern, Hepalink, and likely some heavy hitter investment banker types.
But why hold off on the annoucement? If I'm right and Donny knows, as well as some other connected individuals....Then why not just spill it for those of us up here in the nose bleed seats?
And this goes to the heart of how (by and large) I think the stock market operates. In order to buy low, the smart money and connected crowd....they need the disconnected retail crowd nervous and willing to sell low. High and low are of course relative terms. $2.00 or $3.00 per share....that ain't low when you compare it to the prices we saw just this past December. But if in the months and years to come RVX goest to $10, or $20...or higher, $2 or $3 will certainly look low.
The reason I believe the company is sitting on this news, in my opinion it is in order to give the smart money crowd the opportunity to play on the the fear and greed of retail investors. Fear about further erosion in the PPS and greed so they'll captilize on the jump the PPS has had in the past few months.
Its a thesis, no sure thing of course, but I'll be acting on my beliefs.