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Message: Re: Zenith Materials - Beyond Website

Toinv & SF

I also hold a significant # of Zenith shares received at the spinoff.

One thing to keep in mind re: the Zenith valuation is that Zenith has not yet booked the net present value of future payments to be received from the Royalty agreement.

RVX booked a liability for $30mil at 7-31-15 with this footnote:

"As at July 31, 2015, management updated the estimated fair value to reflect the length of time from the current quarter to future cash flows, based on its estimated timing of the commencement of revenue; management also reduced the discount rate due to a decrease in the risk-free interest rate. The fair value of the royalty preferred shares is subject to significant volatility. Small changes in the aforementioned assumptions may have a significant impact on the fair value of the royalty preferred shares. For instance, holding all other assumptions constant, a 1% increase in the discount rate would result in a $2.9 million decrease in the fair value of the royalty preferred shares. Assuming commencement of revenue one year later would result in a $7.0 million decrease in the fair value of the royalty preferred shares"

As these royalty shares get closer to fulfillment, they will increase in value expnentially with a potential value of $400,000,000 (The Royalty Preferred Shares were booked at a discount rate of ~24% reflecting a probability of realization of 35%). Fully diluted shares outstanding at 4-30-15 were about 100mil. That equates to $4 per share just for the Royalty Revenues. A purchase price of $1 would seem to be a bargain were it not for the "Going Concern" issues and the probability of more dilution to keep the company afloat until the revenues flow.

When Zenith does book this asset, it should result in a nice spike in the value.

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