Closing thoughts on 2015...Why its so hard to buy low
posted on
Dec 31, 2015 08:46PM
Reading complaints about RVX's share price performance in 2015, when the PPS climbed from around 50 cents to its current level around $1.70....it occured to me how easy it is to buy when things are positive and the share price is climbing.
By any measure 2015 was an outstanding year for RVX when you look at where the market cap was at the start of 2015 and where it is now, up around $180 million CDN versus last year's valuation closer to $50 million.
Yet there are still some who will bemoan the fact that back in and around 2006/2007 the PPS was much higher...in the teens and even pushing up towards $30 in 2007 before the great financial crisis kicked the snot out of a lot of equiteis. Obviously a development stage biotech burning cash wasn't immune.
When the news is good, and more importantly when the PPS is climbing steadily....its easy to buy. Dreams of a valuation like we saw ESPR achieve dance in investors heads and they load the boat. Another case of irrational exhuberance? Maybe, but when those runs happen it doesn't seem irrational at all.....the news is good, perhaps some talking heads and analyst types are touting the stock....it might seem an exhuberant time but not irrational. It makes perfect sense.
We saw the same thing, although to a lesser degree, in April with the run to $3. Don was at the Richmond Club, he was on BNN.....wind was in our sales from the patnent news and financing deals with Hepa and Eastern. Were we excited? You bet, I sure was. And then came the drift.....looking at the chart there wasn't a so called "black swan" moment where the PPS saw the bottom drop out. Nothing like the summer of 2013 when the failure to meet pre-defined end points in the Assure trial caused RVX to drop from around $3 to just pennies.
So what's in store for us in 2016? Late in 2014 nobody was predicting patent news, or the Hepa deal. But they happened and sent the PPS on a wild ride, one that still has us up over 200% for last year. Wouldn't it be nice to have a time machine? Go back to Dec/Jan of last year and load up on shares at 50 cents. Of course looking at the comments on SH from that time (this forum was very quiet at this time last year) and you'd see the same gnashing of teeth that some are expressing here now.
Glass half full or glass half empty? I'm an optimist, so I definitely see the glass as being half full as we head into the new year. Nobody was predicting the news we saw early in 2015....so who knows what news we'll be seeing this year. An orphan indication? Further licensing deals?
I will be trying to keep a closer eye this time around, and will not be shy about taking some profits if I judge there to be a spike in the level of excitement....I already own more shares than what we see trading on many days now, so lightening the share load and replacing it with $$$ won't bother me even if I miss out on even bigger gains.
Happy new year all.....here's hoping for another excting year for RVX. Even if we only climb half as much as we did in 2015 I"ll be thrilled.