A few thoughts re Eastern Hepalink etc
posted on
Mar 28, 2016 01:55PM
Once again I have to say I totally disagree with the contention that Eastern is hovering around waiting to pounce on RVX's IP and some have, in a round about way, suggested that Eastern's and Hepalinks interests are aligned in this regard which, IMO, couldn't be further from the truth. To me the only way Eastern's, Hepalink's, NGN's and management's interests are aligned is by RVX being a healthy going concern.
I think perhaps the best way to look at this is to examine what happens to all parties if one pretends for a moment that Don, management and the BoD, not to mention NGN and Hepalink, all fall asleep and Eastern "grabs" RVX's IP.
-RVX; stock goes to about 10 cents because it now is a debt free company (remember in this scenario Eastern has to pay Citi the $68 million that RVX owes) that no longer owns all of its IP but does have an on going trial, BetonMace, and a significant wealth of lab research and results.
-Eastern; Has to pay Citi $68million to satisfy the LoC for RVX. Now has most or all of the IP but no lab/research work or control of any ongoing trials to support the IP so will have to begin the process of obtaining that from a company it does not control or begin its' own supportive research program. Either will cost extra millions and is probably going to take a lot more time than maintaining the status quo while waiting for BetOnMace. Meanwhile Eastern has driven the value of its' ownership in RVX to almost zero, something which it has paid roughly $30 million cash for. Totalled, Eastern will have to triple/quadruple its investment to gain 100% of something it owns roughly 25% of already. I really don't see any motivation for Eastern to want to create what is sure to be a lengthy shit show and remember anything that adds time to market cuts deeply into value creation as patent life is more or less finite. Further, I think that Eastern's claim to IP and tax pools is and always has been purely for downside protection which is just good business.
-Hepalink; sees their capital investment in RVX go to pretty much zero and sees their deal for distribution of RVX-208 become pretty much worthless because their deal is with RVX, a company which no longer owns its' IP. Because of this I think Hepalink would be extremely motivated to insure that RVX maintains its' IP and since all it would take to do this would be to guarantee RVX's loan I think this is close to a no brainer if Eastern tries to obtain RVX's IP by not supporting the loan. Additionally, I think Hepalink would be more than happy to get more warrants and the downside protection of the IP and tax pools should they be called upon to become guarantor.
-NGN, management and retail shareholders all see RVX holdings go pretty much to zero.
In the above scenario, from a business perspective, I see no clear winners and a lot of losers. I totally agree with anyone who says that Eastern and Hepalink are only out for themselves but I think the best way for them to help themselves is to ensure that RVX succeeds in BetOnMace and any other trials they may engage in. This is the best and quickest path forward for them to see their small (for them) investments in RVX produce very large returns.