Zacks SCR Report 9/19/2016
posted on
Sep 21, 2016 01:21PM
Maintaining CAD$5.00 Target: Awaiting First BETonMACE Futility Readout.
Based on our DCF model and a 15% discount rate, RVX is valued at approximately CAD$5.00 per share. Our model applies a 64% probability of apabetalone sales for indications in the BETonMACE trial. Our valuation only includes BETonMACE indication contributions from the US, Europe, & Latin America, as well as royalties from the Hepalink arrangement. It does not recognize potential from renal or other orphan indications.
Outlook
Resverlogix Corp. (RVX.TO) began recruiting and dosing participants in the Phase 3 BETonMACE trial of its lead candidate apabetalone (RVX- 208) in high-risk CVD patients with diabetes in November 2015. We believe the trial will take approximately 3 years to complete, targeting topline readout in 2018. With a potential impact on multiple markers for CVD we are optimistic on a materially significant impact on MACE. The company has begun dosing patients in its PK renal study which may provide for a more rapid approval and access to market through the orphan drug pathway. At the current price, we view Resverlogix shares as undervalued, and in a position to provide long-term upside potential. We maintain our target price of CAD$5.00 per share and believe that expansion into new geographies, the orphan disease program, and renal disease, could provide further upside to our valuation.