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Message: A look at RVX and OBV or On Balance Volume.....

Something like 50 odd years back a technical measure was invented called On Balance Volume, or OBV for short.  The purpose behind it was to try and determine whether a stock was being a accumulated by smart money players....or possibly distributed by the, so called, smart money crowd.  

Its based on the principle (followed by many now) that volume tells the tale.  The idea is that dumb money retail players are overly fixated on price and pay less attention to volume.  An example would be a stock trading for $10 that I'll give the ticker symbol ABCDEF

The stock climbs from $10 to $10.20 on volume of 1 million on the first day.  On the second day the PPS drops to $9.50 on volume of 100K.  On day 3 ABCDEF climbs to $9.60 on volume of 2 million.  Day 4 sees 200K trading as the PPS falls to $8.50 and then on Day 5 it climbs back to $9.00 on volume of 1.5 million.

In this example ABCDEF started at $10 and after five days is sitting at $9.00...a ten percent loss over the period.  But look at the volumes associated with days the PPS climbed versus the volume when the PPS dropped.  On up days the volumes were 1, 2 and 1.5 million....OBV would count that volume as + volume for a total of 4.5 million.  On days the PPS moved down it traded 100K and 200K for a total of 300K which OBV would count as (-) negative volume.  On balance though its 4.3 million on the plus side.  This can be drawn out on a chart of course, and sites like stockcharts include it as one of their technical measures.

The creator of OBV (Joseph Granville) would argue that this "could be" an example of smart money accumulation.  But he would caution that there are other things to look at as well....like on those high volume days was ABCDEF being talked about in the media and putting out bullish sounding press.  If so then it could very well be a case of the smart money crowd distributing their shares, espepcially if ABCDEF recently climbed from say $2 to this $9 to $10 range.

I think trading and investing....I think its both easier and harder now than it was before.  Easier because there are more resources available than ever before, and harder for the same reason because its not an auction market but a manipulative exchange controlled by Brokerages who's interests do not align with those of retail investors...in fact they run almost completely counter to them.

But let's look at what OBV says about RVX for the month of May so far....I'm going to use Stockwatch so that all volume is included, not just the trading on the main TSX.  I'll bold the + volume and underline the negative.

Okay, May 1 the PPS closed down on volume of 22.3K

May 2nd down again on volume of 10.2K

May 3rd down on 23.7

May 4th down on 30.6

May 5th up on 85.8

May 8th down on 22

May 9th up on 42

May 10th up on 16.6

May 11th down on 25

May 12th up on 54

May 15th down on 103.8

May 16th down on 12.4

May 17th up on 10.6

May 18th even PUSH

May 19th down on 3

May 23rd up on 65.4

May 24th down on 11.3

So for the month of May OBV shows negative 306.3K by my count....(verify if you're really bored, I might've made a mistake)....which would suggest distribution and in point of fact if you draw it out on stockcharts that's been the trend since about the middle of March.  

 

 

2017-05-23 T RVX 2.05 2.07 2.00 2.06 0.09 65,364 81 2.06 2.07 51,447 3,000 2,200 3,667   2,900   150       2,000
2017-05-19 T RVX 1.97 1.97 1.96 1.97 -0.04 2,950 7 2.00 2.05 2,900             50        
2017-05-18 T RVX 2.01 2.01 2.01 2.01   1,140 3 1.99 2.05 1,000             140        
2017-05-17 T RVX 2.01 2.07 2.00 2.01 0.01 10,634 22 2.01 2.08 8,600   1,000 100   800   134        
2017-05-16 T RVX 2.03 2.04 2.00 2.00 -0.02 12,439 28 2.00 2.06 8,630 800   1,200   1,700   109        
2017-05-15 T RVX 2.05 2.15 1.98 2.02 -0.07 103,775 146 2.03 2.10 80,625 1,800 1,500 7,000   6,100   50     100 6,600
2017-05-12 T RVX 2.01 2.09 1.90 2.09 0.08 53,952 85 2.04 2.09 46,070 1,200 800 1,800   2,900   182       1,000
2017-05-11 T RVX 2.07 2.10 1.98 2.01 -0.07 24,986 63 2.00 2.05 10,895   2,100 3,900   5,200   191       2,700
2017-05-10 T RVX 2.00 2.08 2.00 2.08 0.02 16,859 50 2.02 2.09 6,580 900 300 2,700   5,900   279       200
2017-05-09 T RVX 2.01 2.09 1.96 2.06 0.04 42,012 76 2.02 2.06 30,062 2,000 1,000 2,235   4,300   115       2,300
2017-05-08 T RVX 1.98 2.07 1.97 2.02 -0.05 21,999 78 2.01 2.02 11,891 1,200 900 1,400   5,200   508       900
2017-05-05 T RVX 1.96 2.07 1.92 2.07 0.19 85,810 118 2.05 2.07 63,250 2,200 3,700 4,400   9,000   60       3,200
2017-05-04 T RVX 1.92 1.92 1.85 1.88 -0.03 30,610 53 1.89 1.97 25,183 1,000 900 600   800   227       1,900
2017-05-03 T RVX 1.91 1.97 1.91 1.91 -0.02 23,713 51 1.91 1.98 7,113 2,800 100 6,500   6,200           1,000
2017-05-02 T RVX 1.98 1.98 1.91 1.93 -0.05 10,157 29 1.90 1.97 2,400 200 300 3,800   3,300   157        
2017-05-01 T RVX 1.95 1.98 1.87 1.97 -0.02 22,336
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