Re: The MD@A for the period ending July 31, 2017
posted on
Sep 17, 2017 09:54AM
KOO
I cannot offer any details as to what a CVR deal may look like if RVX ever enters in one, other than there would be an upfront purchase price, then increases in that purchase price when different milestones are met and I would agree with someone who posted here before on the issue that it is common that within months of the CVR deal being closed the PPS tends to rise to approx 80% of the final value of the deal even if all the milestones have not yet been met. I would add though that the 80% in my view would only be met if a very strong company such as Pfizer or AZ or similar are involved in the CVR deal. If a lesser company makes the CVR deal (such as HL) then my guess is the milestones would likely have to be met before the price rises.
Koo you said
"For the record the reason I prefer a bulk sale, firstly because I am in my senior years and I don't think I have the time to continue with the uncertainty where this BOD is taking the Corporation. A CVR from my propspective is long winded. All that we might see from a CVR is a 125% of the SPP when the deal is struck and that may equate to approx CAN$1.80 per share as a first installment. Granted in a CVR each shareholder is at liberty to sell in the open market before the deal closes as you point out but the SPP will certainly not refelect what the company is really worth as this point in time."
Koo, just my opinion but I believe a fair initial CVR without milestones would be $1billion (I don't think DM would, or should accept anything less than that) I say this (in part) because of the 8 year lead RVX has in BET, their blood bank and the thousands of compounds that the company has. So if it is 1B then that would be much more than your $1.80 estimate. Again just my view if DM is offered an initial fair price of 1B.
Now to your point of being up there in years and not wantIng to wait for milestones and therefor would prefer a complete sale "bulk" sale. I would agree that that is preferred, but it would be very unlikely in my view that that would happen until a successful completion of the BOM trial (and possibly renal trial) is obtained. In that case, your wait would be much longer. So the more likely CVR deal would shorten your wait in my view because again, I don't believe that a bulk sale would happen until you are older and much greyer.
Again, as you requested thoughts on the matter, these are mine.
DYODD
regards
DND