noretreat - With regard to your post at 3:31pm this afternoon https://agoracom.com/ir/Resverlogix/forums/discussion/topics/696911-the-md-a-for-the-period-ending-july-31-2017/messages/2169453#message I have to totally disagree with your expected value per share of $5 to m$7 based on the 2 deals you mentioned being Cynapsus(CYNA) and Trius(TSRX).

I am not an accountant but have done a reasonable job valuing a number of companies that were buyout situations in the past. Most of the time I have been to conservative. Lets hope that trend continues.

First lets look at the valuations these two companies got when they sold. All Values are in US$ for every senario and totals have been rounded.

Cynapsus(CYNA) was aquired by Sunovion(private) for $40.50/shr or $624 mil. Cynapsus was developing a drug to treat Parkinson's disease which affects over 4 mil people world wide or WW. Only about half of these people can afford the medication or 2 mill people. Key valuation points here would be $624 mil for a WW market of 2 mil patients or $312/patient/yr. News Release 31 Aug 2016 Sunovion/Cynapsus. I did not notice at what point in the trial process for this drug was at when the deal was made.

Trius was aquired by Cubist(CBST) in July 2013. They had developed a drug called tedizolid. Anticipated sales  of the drug in the USA were expected to be $137 mil in 2016 (3 yrs later) and $625 mil in 2020 (7 yrs later). Both of these companies are now defunct so getting info was a challenge. I have peaced together what I could from a Seeking Alpha article from 31 July 2013 by Smith On Stocks. That deal value was $359 mil and the shrs outstanding were about 26.6 mil or $13.50/shr. Important valuation points, USA sales were expected to be $137 mil 3 yrs later. Cubist paid 2.6X's the potential 3 yr later sales and .58X's the potential USA sales at peak 7 yrs later. As a side note potential WW sales of Tedizolid were double the USA sales or about $1.25 billion 7 yrs down the road. This would be concidered a blockbuster drug at over $1 bil in potential annual sales.

Now lets relate these past situations of real buyout situations to RVX. We have more than 10 mil potential patients in the G8 countries alone. These are the ones that can afford to buy the drug. This 10 mil does not include China. This 10 mil is only those patients in the diabetic cardio market and does not include the CKD market or the non diabetic market if the drug ever gets aproved for that. Now take the numbers from pg36 of the 14 Feb 2017 PP presentation on the RVX website. They expect up to 64% market penetration or 6.4 mil patients at $4200/yr/patient or about $27 billion in annual sales at peak in 2028. First sales expected in 2021 of $2 bil which is my estimate based on conversations with RVX. 

If we use the Cynapsus deal as a barometer for any RVX deal. I did not find potential sales for this Parkinson's drug when the deal was made. The numbers go something like this. 6.4 mil patients X $312 rev per patient = $2 billion divided by 133 fully diluted RVX shrs = about $15 per shr.

Now lets look at the Trius deal as a barometer. $2 bil in sales in 3 yrs X's 2.6 = $5.2 bil divided by 133 mil = $39 per shr. or the other valuation at peak sales in 2028 of 6.4 mil patients X's $4200 = $26.9 billion X's .58 = $15.6 billion divided by 133 mil = $117 per fully diluted RVX share.

Based on the valuations of $15, $39 and $117 per share after making reasonable comparisons from real past deals that you brought to our attension, IMO expecting $5 to $7 per share is unrealistically low.

RVX-208 has a reasonably good potential to be a Mega Blockbust drug(more than $5 billion in potential annual sales).

In past posts I have said that I expect somewhere between $5 and $10 billion, I will stick to my model. Based on the deals that noretreat has given for examples in the past it fits right in the middle of my valuation. Only time will tell whether I am blowing smoke up my own back side.

Please feel free to poke as many holes as you want in my valuations. Please justify your comments so that I may correct my methods.

This is my opinion only. I do own shares of RVX. I do not have any business realationship with RVX. DYODD

tada