Re: Que sera sera....
posted on
Apr 03, 2018 06:05AM
KK2 - I'm kind of giggling a little bit here. There are 6 recommendations to your post here Koo. If you don't believe a deal can be done why are any of you still in this story? Not trying to be a pain in the backside but just asking. It reminds me of one of the first new issue junior stocks that I bought many many years ago. Bought for .10 a share and after 8 or 9 years the share price was stuck at .21 cents a share. By every measure the share price should have been in the $3 to $5 range but it just wouldn't move off that .20 range. I finally caved in and sold the stock for just over 100% return over that time, about the same as I would have received by putting that money into a GIC/CD. Within 2 years of me selling, the shares traded up to $24 per share. The only reason I bring this up is because of the lack of confidence more and more investors seem to be having in the ability of RVX to do a deal. The same place I was at years ago with the stock I referred to even though by every measure that stock was worth way more than what I sold it for.
RVX is a tiny biotech with neat new science. RVX has a first in class drug. If it works in 1, 2, or 3 indications and that's a big if, it has the potential to be Blockbuster in EACH of the 3 indications. That altogether equals Mega Blockbuster. If or when one or more BP's get a good sniff at this trial being significantly derisked(read that as passing the trial) then there is a reasonable chance that one could take a run at us. There is all kinds of issues as there always seem to be. We have been in a double blinded trial for close to 2 1/2 years now and patience are running low. Other trials have been put on hold so that limited resources could be focused on completing this BoM trial. There is no doubt things could have been done differently in the past but we are here now for better or worse. If you have convinced yourself that a deal is impossible to pull off then reconsider your reasons for being in this story. That reconsideration could go 3 ways, sell, buy or hold.
IMO if there is potential for Mega Blockbuster possibility then a deal is easy enough to figure out. Look what happened with Pfizer buying Medivation who only owned 50% of Enzalutemide. Deals can be worked out when the dollars are large enough. I read somewhere that when a futility analysis is passed with a 75% sample size that there is between 80 and 85% chance of the drug becoming commercial. That was in an article that someone had posted on this board in the last 3 years. I believe the article was put out by the pharma companies association however I could not find it to add a link to.
It won't be long now until we find out whether we fly or die. Hang in there if you are a believer or cut bait and move to another fishing hole of your not.
All IMO, dyodd.
tada