Since my recent sale has become a topic of discussion, I’d like to clarify that I actually sold 3.75% of my position and that the 20% was in reference to the position relative to my net worth. 

My RVX position was large from the start. I started accumulating at around $0.55. My cost basis is $1.24. 

My plan is to try and get my initial capital out before phase 3 data release, but to do it without reducing my position more than around a third.

I understand that this will PROBABLY work out such that I’d have been better leaving it all on the table, but the risk is asymmetric. Think about it. The pain of leaving it all on the table and the trial fails vs the pain of netting $4M instead of $6M. They are not equal in emotional magnitude these two possibilities. Also it’s not clear I’ll make less actually because once my initial capital is returned I can stop watching the stock, I can really let it ride and check back in three years — maybe it’ll be at $300 then! Had I been watching I’d most certainly would have sold some more along the way!

Plus selling a little allows me to rebuy if the stock price retreats and to rebuy in the TFSA which I was unable to do initially.