Re: What's caused big drops before?
in response to
by
posted on
Aug 10, 2018 01:08AM
Yes I think we all expect north of $10 if phase 3 results are good. If we take what tundup said on June 21st about how management feels apabetalone is worth between $6B and $15B then according to tundup that translates to roughly $26 to $79 a share.
What I can contribute is this: stocks don't go up monotonically. There are drawdowns -- BIG drawdowns that are basically just about impossible for anyone to stomach. All the big winners like Apple, Netflix, Tesla, etc all have at some point some large drawdown that would be very hard to hold long through. Most likely you will capitulate by selling and then miss out on all the upside that followed that drawdown.
Even knowing that is true, I'm not sure what I will do. I want to hold as much of RVX as I can to try to average out at a big number. I like to think about how much upside there really could be if this story is bigger than just apabetalone, for example. I don't want to average out at just $10.
The best plan I can come up with is to never look at an RVX quote. If this soars next year, I will take some off the table, but then I will unplug. I will not look at a quote, nor look at my brokerage statement except for maybe once a year at RSP season. Maybe I'll have to move RVX into a separate account so I can still put other trades on and not be influenced by the RVX price. Because I know I will be tempted to sell too soon!