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Message: Re: tiny volume
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Oct 03, 2018 04:10PM
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Oct 03, 2018 04:40PM
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Oct 03, 2018 05:01PM
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Oct 03, 2018 09:50PM

Hi Danceswithhorses.

Thanks for the Amarin reference points and bdaz for the 5 pt MACE clarification. From my perspectice the $18.20 USD price perspective is helpful and would be fantastic from where we sit now.

I'm not in this game for $18USD. If apabetalone achieves a staticically significant reduction in time to first 3 point MACE event I hope it will provide a huge boost in the share price and more importantly drive interest scientifically and in terms of funding or buy out of that specific compound (apabetalone) with ongoing royalties. If it achieves 30% RRR MACE then I believe we have a potential blockbuster because even though epigenetic research seems to be growing at an accelerated rate this will be the first CVOT trial success of an epigenetic molecule as I understand it. If Don is correct in RVX's 10 year intellectual knowledge belief as he constantly states then I "hope" this stock goes "to the moon". That is my hope and not investment advice and it depends on a successful BoM.

As for the stock price post AGM I believe there are a number of factors impacting it. We've been getting a dose of healthy reality as follows;

  • Top lines - current MACE at Sept 12th was 200 at an average monthly rate of 12.5 means roughly 12.5 x 4 = 50 MACE in 4 months which equals end of Feb 2019 plus 60 days for adjusication = end of March unless they publish the top line at < N=250.
  • No SSRA - Finally it is clarified no SSRA. An SSRA would have provided important information at N=188. Depending on the results it could have been a strong driver of interest. Also, without an SSRA the only trial based material event with be the next DSMB report.
  • RVX needs more financing (possibly more dilution) to get to the end of the trial and also to pay out the 50% balance on the Third Eye Capital loan.
  • All of the exciting trials (Fabry, CKD, etc) have been delayed somewhat (naturally - RVX needs money).

This is science. Don can't control the pace of the trial at this stage. Starting the USA, China and other countries might have accelerated things but at this stage that is neither here nor there.

The science that is coming out from my perspective is accelerating and exciting with many events coming up. We might have something on the Zenith side that could add credibility to RVX but I'm not holding my breath in spite of Don's exuberance and almost letting the cat out of the bag.

There could be factors in the mean time that might stimulate interest in the stock such as a major new independent scientific paper on apabetalone and a significant new partner coming to the party, new distribution for apabetalone, etc but those are unknowns.

As an aside I do believe that both AGM presentations were his best to date but I do wish he would hire scientific writers to actually help him explain the science to people like me. This was especially evident on zen3694 when he says we have to block out BRD4...I know the information is there but a guy like me needs a bit more help.

Anyway, those are my opinions currently.

Happy Thanksgiving to our Canadian posters and readers.

Toinv 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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