AMRN already had their Vascepa in the market approved by the FDA.  So the cash flow impact of the 25% reduction in MACE was immediate...up 15% in sales within the first month.  Also, their market cap before the results came out was about $1 billion.  I would use the $3 share price as of August end as a more comparable metric.  Like RVX, the logic of Vascepa made eminent sense...but the market in such matters has a show me attitude to it.  The market has been burnt too many times on false hopes for Phase 3 results to accept anything differently.

I am assuming $4 as the ending price for now...at that price, market cap is already $600 million...which more than adequately captures the uncertainty associated with any Phase 3 trial. The Roth Capital analyst put a 60% chance of success.  I am sure we all think it is higher.  However, if the results come out as we hope, then the implied share price from Roth's analyst is $16 just for the primary indication.  Add another $4 for chronic kidney disease, Dementia and Fabry..and we get $20. 

I am assuming that the $20 is the first price the market will aim for.  However, as the data starts coming through as 2019 progresses, I think we inch higher from there as it becomes clear that Apabetalone is truly a "mini-Humira" as the Makalu report indicated.  In that case, $30 is not out of the question.

Note that Amarin also went from $3 to $20 now...so the parallels are there.  What would really help is if the Nasdaq listing was done before the Phase 3 readout.  The US market will give RVX a much higher valuation than the more Uncle Scrooge Canadian investors.