Yep. I'm penciling in 2400 patient hours for mid June based on his numbers. Is anyone else accounting for patients remaining? Taking patient hours and multiplying it to event rate gives us 172.8 MACE events in Mid June. If we assume the dropout rate is the same as the MACE rate, as it has been in previous trials, this would mean in mid June there were approximately 2050 patients still in the trial.

And then three months later, in Mid September (Sept 12th to be precise), the company provides us with “we now stand almost bang on 200” Mace Events. Thus between Mid June and Mid September, MACE events transpired at about 9.7 per month. Granted MACE rates should rise as we go into winter, and it will be interesting to see how quickly that happens. But if we use the September 200 MACE data points with the extrapolated total patient hours we find that the event rate dropped below 7% in September. The shaded boxes are numbers provided either by Turndup or the company. The rest of the numbers have been extrapolated to give rough estimates. Here are my rought numbers. Hoping to get comments and criticism. Thanks.