Re: The waiting game.....

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KillerNut

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Re: The waiting game.....

in response to

Re: The waiting game.....

BearDownAZ

posted on Feb 12, 2019 07:46PM

New poster here. Post on Investor Village normally.

Longtime investor in AMRN, biggest win ever last year...

Followed RVX since Dec 18 and been reading this forum anonymously since then...

Appreciate all the posters here but particularly BDAZ...

I put together a model that assumes a constant event rate (not realistic I realize but the best I could do) and no drop outs. Used BDAZ post of a few days ago showing rough enrollment dates as a baseline. I will see how it posts...

Placebo Rate	7.00%	Test Rate	4.90%	RRR	30.00%

		Elap Time (Mo)	Remaining		total events	per month	event to date
# Placebo	300	3	295		9	2	9
# Test	300	3	296			1

Add'l Patient	100
		Elap Time (Mo)	Remaining
# Placebo	395	3	388		12	2	21
# Test	396	3	391			2

Add'l Patient	200
		Elap Time (Mo)	Remaining
# Placebo	588	3.5	576		20	3	41
# Test	591	3.5	583			2

Add'l Patient	200
		Elap Time (Mo)	Remaining
# Placebo	776	2	767		15	5	57
# Test	783	2	777			3

Add'l Patient	75
		Elap Time (Mo)	Remaining
# Placebo	842	2	832		17	5	73
# Test	852	2	845			3

Add'l Patient	100
		Elap Time (Mo)	Remaining
# Placebo	932	1.5	924		14	5	87
# Test	945	1.5	939			4

Add'l Patient	75
		Elap Time (Mo)	Remaining
# Placebo	999	1	993		10	6	97
# Test	1014	1	1010			4

Add'l Patient	50
		Elap Time (Mo)	Remaining
# Placebo	1043	2	1031		21	6	118	End of Mar 2018
# Test	1060	2	1051			4

Add'l Patient	25
		Elap Time (Mo)	Remaining
# Placebo	1056	3	1037		32	6	150	End of May 2018
# Test	1076	3	1063			4

Add'l Patient	25
		Elap Time (Mo)	Remaining
# Placebo	1062	3	1044		32	6	182	End of Aug 2018
# Test	1088	3	1075			4

Add'l Patient	25
		Elap Time (Mo)	Remaining
# Placebo	1069	3	1050		32	6	214	End of Nov 2018
# Test	1100	3	1086			4

Add'l Patient	25
		Elap Time (Mo)	Remaining
# Placebo	1075	2	1063		22	6	235	End of Jan 2019
# Test	1111	2	1102			5

I think what this shows is the events per month was steadily increasing until enrollment hit about 2000 and has been on a plateau since. anyway thought I would post this and let you pick away.