Re: Just got off the phone with Paul Moon....
posted on
Jan 18, 2019 10:09PM
I don't see myself making another call anytime in the foreseeable future...so questions about your new car Kelsee, or Bear wanting to know if a PR is planned when 250 events are achieved, you'll have to ask yourselves.
The main purpose of my call was with respect to the finance side, I notice I didn't include a small tidbit I recall from the conversation. Its with respect to the $5 million cash balance covenant, I said to Paul that they have to be pretty darned close to the line, he remarked on the recent annual filing and subsequent raises and acknowledged that its public informaiton, but he said the company is in compliance with the covenants of the loan.
After talking about the event rate range, which I now view with a lot of skepticism, I went so far as to say "putting on my conspiracy hat, it sometimes wonder whether things are being done in such a way so as to frustrate retail shareholders on purpose" That remark drew no reaction, crickets.
Taking that 10-15 event rate referenced at the AGM and in the January slide presentation...it now strikes me that without context that it doesn't have a lot of value. I don't know how it was presented at the AGM....but in the slide presentation it simply says:
Three point MACE event accumulation now stands over 200 with an occurrence rate of 10-15 per month
Does that event rate come from data of the past 6 months, over the past year....over the 3+ years of the trial? We were told at the AGM the number of events was about 200. Now all we know its that its over 200...but that is still very fuzzy. 201, 210, 220, 240?
If that 10-15 event rate is based on the entire 3+ years since dosing started....then at this point its pretty useless in my opinion.
Paul did say they're doing their best to manage expectations, hence the H1 target....a huge window of 5+ months at this stage. As far as financing goes, I'm starting to think that they might negotiate something new with Third Eye, a blend and extend type facility.
Fun times, I am still of the opinion that Christmas is coming....but we're all 2 years old with no real concept of time. Tell a 2 or 3 year old that Christmas is coming in 2 weeks, they'll ask "does that mean when I wake up"? Its coming in my opinion, we just don't know when.