Let's assume we've been at an event rate of about 5 p/month since September....Now as we head into March I think its reasonable to think the rate might even decline further...perhaps as low as 2 or 3 per month.  What I'm thinking is they could miss the H1 "expectation" as well....

Let's play with some numbers....pulled right out of my frequently referenced nether regions....that's not the way I'd normally put it, but the 6 rules mandate arcane expressions if one wishes to add some colour.  

I'm assuming 2,400 total patients split evenly and 220 events broken down as 65 dosed and 155 placebo...rose coloured glasses I know but if you're gonna dream etc.  

1200 - 65 = 1,135 patients in the dosed arm

1200 - 155 = 1,045 patients in the placebo arm

I'm going to further speculate that my hypothetical event rate going forward will only be 3 p/month with most being in the placebo group....at a rate of 1 dosed event to 9 placebo events.  

Of course if I'm even remotely close in these hypthetical guesses, then it would take 10 more months to reach the 30 additional MACE needed to attain the magic 250 number.  And goodness knows the company wouldn't leave retail shareholders in the dark if this is true....oh wait, they've been doing that for ages now.