I think we need to look at the RVX/HL relationship as two companies joined at the hip. They are at this point just so intertwined in each others success.
HL in theory has the leverage but pressing that leverage too far hurts RVX and therefore indirectly HL.
HL and RVX will likely just extend the agreement to a date much further out when all the trial results have been disseminated and their rights to the US are either worth billions or worthless.
The question is really what are HL’s intentions? To sell off the rights as part of an eventual sale to BP if the results are strong or actually try and become a big boy company and maintain the rights for the US.
My guess, which is as good as yours, is they want both a massive investment win from their shares and rights and to maintain the Far East rights, but who knows.
I don’t see any reason for HL to pony up more money for rights currently or RVX to push them on their first right of refusal.
So, in the end, IMHO, this is like everything with RVX these days, likely a nothing event with an extension that will all be determined by future results.