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Message: Why I think it's a homerun

"The 6.9 per 100 patient years was something that was communicated  on the board  I believe a while back from someone speaking to management so, I will take that info with a grain of salt,.... That being said, if that information communicated  of 6.9 per 100 patient years  was true , ( speculation of course)  than we should expect possible good results from trial, no????"

NBB, that all depends on what the original expectations were. In the Q1 2018 corporate updates, they indicated that the projected MACE rate was still 8 per 100 patient years for the total population (placebo and apabetalone combined). If 3600 patient years was the target, then 8 X 36 = 288 events. For 8 per 100 to be the overall rate, then the placebo rate must have been much higher if one believes apabetalone to be reducing event rate. As I wrote earlier, EXAMINE placebo rate was around 8 per 100 patient years but ELIXA was closer to 6 per 100 patient years. To confuse matters even more, the orignal trial design was for 3600 patient years to yield 250 events, which equals overall 6.94 events per 100 patient years. And then in the AHA 2018 poster, it indicated that the assumed placebo event rate was 7 events per 100 patient years. 

One can cherry pick numbers to paint a rosy picture for sure. But if one considers ALL of the information available, it is confusing and doesn't add up to a clear picture in my opinion.

BearDownAZ

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