Re: No mention of efficacy again...
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 29, 2019 06:38PM
Koo,
I really have no clue lol sorry ... due to the 100% speculative aspect of hitting the endpoint. I hate to say it this way, but it is worth nothing at this point (in my harsh view), other than what investor confidence offers, with the value being all about the endpoint, and even then not until FDA approval and marketability. Any value now is based on the science and technology assets within the company that could have "melt down" value, also coupled with the confidence of the investment community in eventual FDA approval. Personally, I'm not sure how to value that beyond what a BP buyer is willing to pay looking at the approval risks versus the market opportunity?
That said, I do believe there is a LOT of "potential" value in the science that has been developed to date, whether RVX-208 is approved or not. But I also think the likelihood of success in this BoM P3 trial is high enough based on past efficacy and safety data, that there is a strong value to a prospective buyer even right now if confident in the science ... coupled with a desire to buy it now "on the cheap" prior to data revealing a vast potential within the market(s).
I feel like I just talked around in a circle sorry ..... but I just vassilate around the book value of assets now in the worst case, and the speculative value upon successful trial given the potential markets ...... and if we assume a successful trial (which I am) then I listen closely to the more experienced and smarter souls on this board for the potential market value .... and 5-7 billion seems right to me, with MUCH more value if RVX-208 is approved for Cardio, and with Renal + Cognitive indications in P3 studies as an already APPROVED molecule ..... IOW if we get FDA approval for Cardio, and the BoM data suggests Renal and Cognitive are legitimate targets and they are in P3 themselves also ...... look out ...... and I like the market numbers that tada and others have reasoned, based on those markets, perhaps into the $15-25 billion range (potentially)? .....
but again, honestly, I am learning more from you and others on this board, as we go, in those areas, rather than offering insights other than just my own common sense (run the other way!!) ......
I'm happy to hear Don is "rumored" to have turned down 1.5 billion. I am also intrigued that there was no Futility Analysis - I cannot think of any reason for not having a FA other than complete confidence in how BoM will turn out, otherwise wouldn't they want to cut losses or save $$ for the next study if there was a concern about study failure or design flaws of BoM? ... I would want to KNOW that myself, unless I am short on funds haha ... and/or HIGHLY confident. Like more than 1.5 billion confident (gulp) .....